Extreme Weather and Event Planning Risks in Canada

Following nearly a year of media monitoring and hours interviewing event organisers, I’m pleased to announce the release of a new report into how extreme weather is impacting events in Canada.

Canada is projected to face increased annual and seasonal mean temperatures into the future due to climate change. A warmer climate will intensify some weather extremes, including the severity of heatwaves, and contribute to increased drought, wildfire and heavy rainfall. These risks are becoming real for event organisers in Canada, where 72 events were reported as disrupted by extreme weather in 2023.

Interviews with organisers of affected events provide some insight into impacts on and response to what is generally perceived as an increasing risk from uncertain weather. Financial losses to event organisers, many of whom lack cancellation insurance, raise questions about the sustainability of events following multiple years of disruption due to COVID-19. Organisers express concern that without increased financial support from sponsors, participants and government, beneficial social and economic legacies from organised events are at risk.

Media monitoring and organiser interviews uncovered the following:

• 72 unique events were reported as disrupted by heat, wildfire, flooding, cold and storms in Canada in 2023. Were events within series or tours to be counted as individual events, total event disruptions would increase to 99.
• Outdoor special events (32%), sports (29%) and festivals (25%) were most impacted.
• Wildfire and smoke caused 74% of all disruptions, followed by storms (12%) and heat (8%).
• Most disrupted events were cancelled (58%). 29% were able to be rescheduled and did occur.
• Nearly half of reported disruptions were in British Columbia (48%), followed by Nova Scotia (11%), Ontario (10%), Quebec (10%), the Northwest Territories (8%) and Alberta (5%).

Interviews with organisers of affected events provide insight into the nature of weather disruption on events and organiser response.

Nature of Risk

• Most organisers who were interviewed feel risks from weather are increasing in frequency and causing greater losses. Organisers agree that the operating environment for events is more uncertain overall due, at least in part, to weather incidents.
• Organisers feel weather to be a manageable risk in isolation, but that more frequent and diverse weather events, combined with public health and economic pressures, present a financially unsustainable situation for organisers and attendees alike.

“Extreme weather is an issue upon other issues that are making it hard for arts and culture activities broadly. People have less money to spend. Inflation is having an impact. Other times and venues can be considered but physical infrastructure to host events can be limited and may not be well-maintained. Everything is more expensive. Investment on multiple fronts is needed to cope with overall financial strain.”

Arts and culture festival organiser, quoted on p. 21

Preparation

• All organisers who were interviewed have emergency procedures that enable them to respond to weather incidents. A few felt responses could be improved and were working to develop protocols. Procedures developed in response to COVID-19 were transferable to weather incidents.

“We have plans for wind, rain, terrorism and other things. We are very prepared for heat and humidity. We use equipment to monitor it and have policies about what to do across the temperature scale. We did not have a plan for smoke.”

Sports event organiser whose competition was partially cancelled due to poor air quality from wildfire, quoted on p. 24

Decision-Making

• Organisers can struggle to make high-stakes cancellation decisions in situations where they are in proximity to but not directly subject to a mandatory weather order or travel ban.
• Organisers diverge in their decisions to reschedule or relocate their events on a permanent basis. Some are not able to reschedule or relocate due to attendee considerations and the place-based nature of their event. Some who are able to shift are adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach to 2024. Others are changing destination selection procedures and policies to consider the impact of climate change. A few have decided to shift the timing of their events to avoid weather risks.

“Decisions are left to the organiser and the situation is highly changeable. It’s ‘best guess’ planning. And a lot is riding on the decision to cancel given the financial stakes.”

Arts and culture festival organiser, quoted on p. 25

Communication Aspects

• Organisers seek clearer guidance in decision making and contingency planning for air quality-related disruptions.
• Organisers see advantages to working with other event planners to create shared guidance and strategies for responding to weather events. This could assist with crisis communications.
• Organisers cite good communication and strong relationships with suppliers and sponsors as keys to recovery.
• Participant communication strategies must be proactively considered and robust, with careful attention to the purpose of messaging at each stage of planning.

“It was a very difficult decision (to cancel) and we want to be very transparent about how and why it was made.”

Community special event organiser, quoted on p. 34

Financial Aspects

• Weather events are causing significant financial strain on events.
• Cancellation insurance is not typically optioned due to high premiums or lack of eligibility.
• Cancellation policies that rollover registrations create liabilities and reduce future revenue potential.
• Organisers are concerned consumer confidence in events is being affected by weather-related cancellations and will lead to more last minute decisions to attend. This presents cash flow issues for organisers who rely on presales.
• Organisers are leaning on sponsors, grants and loyal fans who are willing to donate refunds to remain financially viable in the face of multiple disruptions.

“All event organisers faced losses. While not everyone provided detailed information, four estimated that 10-50% of their budget was lost. This was six-figures or more in at least three cases.”

Summary research results, quoted on p. 35

Personal and Community Wellbeing

• Organisers express increased anxiety and burnout as a result of weather related disruption.
• Disrupted events have an emotional cost to participants and other stakeholders. They result in unrealised potential and lost legacies for communities that invest heavily in them.

“The financial deficit is not as big as the loss of community growth and eagerness in hosting such a big event. The legacies left behind and so much more.”

Sports event organiser whose competition was cancelled due to a wildfire evacuation order, quoted on p. 40

While singular or benign weather events are a common occurrence that event organisers are used to managing, this research reveals that events in Canada have been subject to prolonged and increasing stressors, including pandemic closures, weather disruption and rising costs. This is placing strain on organisers, financially and emotionally. While cancellation insurance, emergency preparedness, crisis communication plans and grants can blunt losses, there are serious questions about the ability of event organisers to continue to bear the brunt of recurring disruptions caused by compounding risks. Canadians who value the social and economic outcomes events deliver may need to step up their sponsorship and support of the events they cherish in order to ensure they will be able to withstand weather risks into the future.